Energy Transition - Lessons from Afghanistan on an orderly transition.

The world recently witnessed the stunning events in Afghanistan, where a disorderly transition from the coalition forces, led to the speedy overrun of Afghan forces by the Taliban, and the rapid collapse of the Afghan government. 

Quite distressing were the scenes from Kabul airport where thousands of Afghans, who out of fear for their lives, did not only swamp a military aircraft but hung desperate to the wings and tires of the planes, and some sadly lost their lives, after the aircraft take-off. Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and people of Afghanistan. 

These developments are a stark reminder to the world of what happens when an orderly transition is not ensured in any major undertaking. This puts into perspective the energy transition, from hydrocarbon to alternative energy.  

What are some of the emerging lessons from the disorderly transition in Afghanistan? 

1). The withdrawal of coalition forces ahead of their civilian citizens resulted in having to send back thousands of coalition soldiers to provide safe passage for their own citizens and refugees.  

2). Removing the logistical backbone of the Afghan military by the withdrawal of the coalition forces and support, led to their rapid collapse and defeat on the battlefield. 

3). The inadequate backup plan on securing sensitive equipment like black hawk helicopters has led to their falling into the hands of the Taliban, leaving them much more potent, and which may come back to haunt the world later. 

On energy transition, the Paris agreement set a clear ambition to limit global warming to preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. This will require a huge reduction of greenhouse emissions (or decarbonization) of which 75% come from fossil fuel (hydrocarbons), as well as a significant growth of alternatives (hydro, biofuel, solar, wind, waves, nuclear).  

However, what is not clear is how the transition to the future energy system will look like and how it will be planned, resourced, and managed so as to avoid unintended consequences and huge fallouts similar to the unorderly transition in Afghanistan.  

The world's energy system is complex and built on the back of trillions of dollars of investments in hydrocarbon over decades. 80% of today's global primary energy is generated from hydrocarbons (coal, oil, and gas) to enable many sectors like electricity, transport (planes, ships, and billions of vehicles), and our way of life such as our houses (cement, steel, aluminum) and daily living (clothes, plastics, polythene). A disorderly removal of this backbone of our energy system will lead to catastrophic outcomes.  

It is important to understand that fossil fuel contributes more than just an energy source to the world, as the petrochemical uses of these hydrocarbons which support our daily lives (cement, steel, aluminum, etc), cannot yet be replaced by wind, solar or hydro, hence there is a case to still support the development of fossil fuel in a manner that creates a cleaner and more effective use of this resource through the transition, so as not to negatively impact society. 

Whilst climate change will of course impact all on earth, but the world is currently in two groups of minority developed countries and the majority developing countries. With 152 countries (6.6bn people or 85%) in the developing group, where many cannot afford the current relatively cheaper energy from hydrocarbon for electricity, transport, and living, a higher energy cost from a disorderly transition to more expensive alternatives will not only further impoverish the majority of people but also widen the inequality gap. To do so will be unconscionable, especially as for example Africa as a continent is not responsible for more than one percent of global warming carbon emission. .

There is thus the need to consider the appropriate energy mix for each geography and a practical timetable to achieve the smooth transition. This should also be taken into account by financial institutions as they define their “Paris aligned investment criteria”, as to do otherwise may lead to significant periods of shortages and high energy prices, which may lead to desperate measures.

In addition, the cost of alternative energy needs to match or be lower than current costs and its global adequacy is ensured, all day and all year round, as a pre-condition for the transition. This will require more work, funding, and research in cost-reduction solutions and technologies (including carbon capture and storage), to achieve the objective, and this is an area that richer developing countries can do more

A recently published report which stated that the world can achieve energy transition without any further investments in hydrocarbon misses the challenge of what such an “expensive” transition means for the poor majority in developing nations. The reality is that developing countries that are currently grappling with development actually need to have more investment in their hydrocarbon resources during the transition, so as to reduce inequality and take people out of poverty. More investments are needed in such countries to ensure that responsible companies are the ones involved in the extraction activities so as to minimize the carbon footprint rather than to discourage such companies and lead to the emergence of incompetent operators, who are not committed to decarbonization, to take on the operations. 

A key challenge with the energy transition is a lack of “coalition” between key players, and which has led to the debate being less constructive since 2015. On one side of the table are activists who are bullish for fossil fuel to be ended possibly tomorrow, and who are pushing for investors to stop funding hydrocarbon projects, and taking court actions but without providing credible solutions. On the other end are oil companies who are starting to diversify and invest in alternative energies so as to be part of the solution and who are arguing that the transition will need time considering the energy system complexity. In the middle of the table are governments, who are slowly working to understand and develop appropriate public policies (such as a price for carbon to make people do the right things) and to determine how to implement invasive actions including mandates and bans. At the side of the table is society, which is becoming impatient and frustrated with all the unclarity from all the parties, but is itself yet to appreciate how much it will need to play its part in reforming demand. This discordant approach driven more by emotion in many cases will only lead to chaos, and whereas what is needed is a real partnership to ensure understanding and to jointly develop and invest in an orderly transition. 

The energy transition will require collaboration, proper planning, resourcing, sequencing, and timing so as to ensure an orderly transition to avoid desperate measures, circular movements, reversal, costly reentry, and interventions like we are seeing in Afghanistan. Simplistic ideas like outlawing hydrocarbon, ending investments in hydrocarbon, or excluding any group in the transition, will be unhelpful. The current dysfunctional situation needs to change and all parties work together to avoid a catastrophic failure and huge impact that a disorderly transition will create. 

It is time for the world to come together to develop an orderly transition plan, and hopefully, the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in October/November 2021, will set the world on the most appropriate pathway.

Babs Omotowa